Wednesday, June 6, 2012

MU in the 2012 Draft: Will they stay or will they go?

Max Scherzer, 2006 11th pick
To understand how the new signing and bonus rules, click and read this entire article:

Slots You Can Believe In (Baseball America)
Teams can spread the money among their picks in the top 10 rounds in different ways so long as they stay under the total budget. For example, the Astros could sign their No. 1 pick for $5.2 million and spread the extra $2 million among other players. However, if a team fails to sign a player, it cannot apply the budgeted amount for that pick to other players and loses that amount from its overall budget.
Also check out Baseball America's article about the effect of the new rules on the first 15 rounds: New Draft Rules Create Confusion, Run On College Seniors


BLAKE BROWN

Drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the 5th round as the 179th overall pick in the draft. According to the bonus percentage chart, Brown cannot be signed for over $222,400. If he were to return to MU for his senior year and put up even better numbers that moved him up even one round, that bonus limit could rise up to $300,000 or more. It's a gamble whether to have that much faith in doing appreciably better next season, or do no better and actually drop a round or more because of lost negotiation leverage. Moving down a round could lower the bonus to $150,000 or lower.

@BSQUARED39 (Blake Brown on Twitter: Thanks everybody for the congratulations. Really appreciate the support from everybody. This is for everybody

@AriA1exander: So why did Blake Brown go so high? Projectable power, good range, can hit to all fields. He has just scratched surface of potential.

@bmweiss18: If Blake Brown makes the major leagues one day, I'll be able to say I saw a big leaguer shoot apples out of a sling shot. That's pretty cool

Blake Brown (TalkingChop.com)
The Braves nab a raw and toolsy college Junior with their fifth pick. This kid is the definition of high-risk, high-reward. He has terrific overall tools, but apparently doesn't play up to their full potential, holding back at times. Brown possesses good speed and has lots of power potential, but strikes out far too much, revealing a hesitant and unrefined approach to the plate. But teams can't always draft finished products, and it will be up to the Braves system to mold Brown into the player his tools say he can be. That ceiling could be very high.

DRAFTED RECRUITS

The good news:  The Tiger coaching staff, led by Recruiting Coordinator Kerrick Jackson, are doing a fantastic job recruiting high quality prospects to sign Letters of Intent to play for Mizzou.

The bad news:  Those high quality recruits also have gotten the attention of major league scouts.

ALEC RASH had been projected by some to be picked early in the 2nd round, but fell to the 95th overall pick at the bottom of the 2nd round by the Phillies. According to the percentage chart, the difference between the 61st pick at the top of the 2nd round and Rash's 95th pick at the bottom is $844,100 vs. $500,000. The young pitcher will have to decide whether he thinks he has the stuff to follow in the footsteps of Scherzer, Crow and Gibson and be a 1st round pick out of the University of Missouri in three years. If Scherzer were drafted as the 11th pick under this agreement, the bonus limit would be $2,625,000. Crow's 12th overall pick (by the Royals) would be worth $2,550,000, and Gibson, the 2nd pick, would be slotted at $1,800,000. If Alec Rash is as good as scouts say he is, he could get in three years of college, play in the SEC with Mizzou, and earn himself an additional million or two dollars as a side benefit.

Alec Rash of ADM picked by Philadelphia Phillies in 2nd round (Des Moines Register)
Alec Rash has another option for his future.

The ADM of Adel senior, who has committed to play baseball at Missouri, was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the second round of the Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft today.

Rash, who owns a 2-1 record with a 0.93 ERA this season, topped out at 95 mph during a pre-draft showcase.

BRALIN JACKSON was selected by the Tampa Bay Says in the 5th round as the 182nd overall pick. As such, he has a signing bonus limit of $216,000.

♦ This blogger says (rather bluntly) that Bralin Jackson has a lot of tools and raw talent, but is a long way from being developed enough for the major leagues: 5th Round: Bralin Jackson Gives Rays Even More Athleticism- With A Twist (Rays Colored Glasses)
Jackson is a complete work in progress. But he has some nice upside all over. Jackson is a player who is going to need to start from the very beginning at Rookie ball and methodically work his way through the minors. His chances are not very good. But he has the upside of a centerfielder who hits .280 with 25 homers, 25 steals, and good defense. He may have the power and arm strength to handle right field if he can’t handle centerfield. Jackson is a very interesting upside pick given his power and hitting potential to go along with his speed and athleticism. Once again, it’s unlikely that he works out.
Seems to me if Jackson needs that much development, three years playing in the SEC for Mizzou would do him good. We'll have to wait and see which option he chooses.

@TheOnlyGriff_G (MU recruit Griffin Goodrich): Shout out to my future mizzou teammate Bralin Jackson going 5th round to the Rays!


HUNTER HAYNES was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the 13th round as the 403rd overall pick. That puts him outside the range of the slotting chart, but guarantees that the Royals will not offer him more than $100,000, due to the penalties involved if they do. AS a 13th round pick, the offer will likely be considerably less than that limit.

@BlubergOTB: Stats on #Royals 13th round draft pick and #Mizzou signee Hunter Haynes: 47.1 IP, 84 K, 10 BB, 0.44 ERA.


We wish Blake and Alec and Bralin well, no matter whether they are Tigers in 2013, or minor leaguers.

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