2013 Intended Strength of Schedule

Here are the final 2012 RPI numbers for the teams on MU's official 2013 schedule (ranked highest to lowest).  RPI numbers are from Boyd's World Pseudo-RPI final ranking. MU's 2012 RPI is also listed, for comparison purposes.

Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have
the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark
 attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force:
 "There are three kinds of lies:
lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Mark Twain

As we do every year, we've adapted a statistic used by Boyd Nation at BoydsWorld.com which he calls the Intended Schedule Strength. We're taking a look at the average final RPI numbers for the teams on the schedule (counting each team's RPI as many times as they will play MU on the schedule), with the goal of seeing what the Tiger coaches are expecting from their assemblage of opponents. Of course, neither they nor we have any way of knowing how well MU's opponents will actually perform in 2013 as compared to 2012, but these most recent statistics are all we have to go on.

Here's a more detailed description of the theory behind the ISS at BoydsWorld.com.  When all the 2013 schedules are out, Boyd will publish his own ISS list, which will be much more statistically refined than mine.  But then, a game of 52-Pickup is more refined than my statistical skills.

Based on that approach, Missouri's intended schedule strength for 2013 comes out to .541. In 2012, a team with an RPI of 0.541 would have finished in 65th place in the RPI rankings. Basically, this schedule averages out to MU playing a full schedule against Tulane or Liberty.

This shows a significant statistical increase over the past couple of years.  Mizzou Baseball's switch from the Big 12 to the SEC has a lot to do with that increase, as evidenced by the list below, which shows 24 of the top 26 RPIs on Missouri's 2013 schedule belonging to SEC opponents.  (By the way, that list also shows that Missouri Baseball should not be automatically considered a basement dweller among the exalted Southeastern Conference.  A 9th place RPI among the SEC teams on our schedule is not fantastic, but it's far better than some of the critics would have us believe.)

It's also possible that some teams like Southern Mississippi and Arkansas State are somewhat more interested in playing Missouri as a member of the SEC.

.632  Florida
.632  Florida
.632  Florida
.611  South Carolina
.611  South Carolina
.611  South Carolina
.606  LSU
.606  LSU
.606  LSU
.590  Texas A&M
.590  Texas A&M
.590  Texas A&M
.590  Kentucky
.590  Kentucky
.590  Kentucky
.578  Vanderbilt
.578  Vanderbilt
.578  Vanderbilt
.565  Missouri State
.565  Missouri State
.549  Auburn
.549  Auburn
.549  Auburn
.547  Georgia
.547  Georgia
.547  Georgia
.541  Average.535  Missouri.533  Memphis
.533  Memphis
.533  Memphis
.530  Illinois
.529  Southern Mississippi
.529  Southern Mississippi
.529  Southern Mississippi
.514  Arkansas State
.514  Arkansas State
.514  San Francisco
.514  San Francisco
.514  San Francisco
.513  Tennessee
.513  Tennessee
.513  Tennessee
.508  Alabama
.508  Alabama
.508  Alabama
.417  Murray State
.469  Eastern Michigan
.469  Eastern Michigan
.463  SEMO
.451  Jackson State
.451  Northwestern
.451  Northwestern
.451  Northwestern
.410  Nebraska-Omaha

Previous Years Intended Strength of Schedule for Mizzou:

2012: .522
2011: .533
2010: .540
2009: .541
2008: .537
2007: .534
2006: .532
2005: .528
2004: .528

How accurate does the Intended Strength of Schedule usually turn out to be?  A year ago we calculated the Intended Strength of Schedule as a .522  RPI, but by season's end, BoydsWorld.com listed MU as having a .535 RPI.  So there's an obvious margin of error, since the rosters and performance of any of these teams may vary significantly from year to year.

As I say every year, I won't at all be surprised if someone writes me an e-mail to tell me I've made some colossal error in my calculations. I'm not a statistician but I sometimes do pretend to be one on the internet.