Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Mizzou Baseball: Crunched by the numbers

BoydsWorld.com has their RPI Needs chart up.
"This report lists the record each team would need for the rest of their schedule to finish higher than the team currently in the shown key RPI positions, those that correspond to the various seeding or at large thresholds, assuming that all other teams maintain their current winning percentage. It's highly speculative, since those RPI levels will move up or down, and the committee is highly unlikely to just take the top 8 in RPI for the national seeds, for example, but it can be useful as a rough guide."
For Missouri, currently ranked 127th in RPI, the chart says it is statistically impossible to win enough games to reach the top 32 in ranking, which would virtually guarantee an invite to the NCAA Regionals. Missouri would have to go 21-1 from here on out to reach the top 45, which would put them in contention for the final dozen or so spots in the bracket.

Again, as Boyd Nation says, this is all "highly speculative". And it doesn't factor in the possibility of the team reversing fortunes and going on a run that's not quite 21-1, but building momentum going into the Big 12 Tournament, the winner of which gets an automatic invite to the NCAA Tournament. MU still has Texas A&M to play, but other than the Aggies, the remainder of the Tigers' Big 12 schedule is against the teams currently in 5th-9th place in the conference standings. Only 3 wins or losses separate the 5th place team (KU) from the 10th place team (MU).

To see how these odds compare to the same time last season, check out this post on SimmonsField.com. MU was in a better position a year ago than they are now, statistically - and did not make the Tournament.

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