Monday, May 17, 2010

Will there be a post-season for MU?

Is Mizzou guaranteed a spot in the Big 12 Tournament?

Current Big 12 Standings
  1. UT: 21-3; 0.875 (@ MU)

  2. KSU: 13-10; 0.565 (@ A&M)

  3. OU: 12-10; 0.545 (@ KU)

  4. TT: 13-11; 0.542 (@ NU)

  5. A&M: 12-11; 0.522 (KSU)

  6. KU: 11-12; 0.478 (OU)

  7. MU: 10-13; 0.435 (UT)

  8. BU: 9-13; 0.409 (OSU)

  9. OSU: 8-16; 0.333 (@BU)

  10. NU: 7-17; 0.292 (OU)
Only the top 8 finishers qualify for the Big 12 Tournament. Nebraska is the only team that is absolutely eliminated from the tournament.

Mizzou currently sits at 7th. Baylor and Oklahoma State are both within statistical striking distance of passing the Tigers. The good news for MU, though, is that BU and OSU are playing each other in this coming weekend's final 3-game series, which means either of those teams could pass MU, bumping the Tigers to 8th place, but it is not statistically possible for both of them to pass MU. The success of one automatically is the failure of the other.

If the Tigers win one game from the Longhorns, they will be out of reach of OSU. Missouri needs to win one more game next weekend than Baylor to stay out ahead of the Bears.

So the Tigers are indeed guaranteed a slot in the Tournament. Staying out of 8th place would mean MU doesn't have to face Texas in the first game of the tourney.

The Longhorns are way out in front of the pack, and will still have a comfortable cushion in 1st place even if the Tigers were to sweep them. But with three conference games remaining, the next 6 teams, from Kansas State to Missouri, are separated by a mere 3 wins/losses. Which means MU, with the upset of the decade against UT, could finish just about anywhere from 3rd on down.

Can Mizzou beat Texas this coming weekend?
Mizzou has won 9 of the last 14 meetings with Texas. UT beat MU 3 of 4 times in 2009, after Mizzou took 3 of 4 in 2008.

The Tigers have played the Longhorns very well at Simmons Field since 2004, going 7-2.

Augie Garrido has historically said the Big 12 Tournament doesn't matter much. His whole focus is on the NCAA Tournament. Because of this attitude, he will be managing his team with an eye toward the Regionals, and his players will be picking up on his approach as well

From Tigerboard.com:
Dixie: Am I the only person who thinks Missouri could sweep Texas next weekend? . . . Texas has absolutely nothing to play for next weekend. I mean, they'll try to win, but they won't strain themselves to do it. If they get swept, it does not matter one iota.

Mizzou Astro: They're still playing for seeding in the Tourney, but they would still be a top 8 seed if they got swept. The one thing they won't do is extend pitchers needlessly.
Does Mizzou have a shot at a bid to the NCAA Regionals?

The Tigers and the Longhorns are the only Big 12 teams to make the Regionals over the last seven consecutive seasons. But with an RPI ranking in the high 80's, MU will not even get consideration by the selection committee since, with all the automatic bids from lower level conferences, only the top 45 teams will make it.

Unless . . .
  1. Missouri wins the Big 12 Tournament, earning the automatic conference bid

  2. Or, Missouri manages to take 2 or 3 from Texas this next weekend (boosting their RPI and their visibility) and then makes a run all the way to the championship game of the Big 12 tournament (again boosting both RPI and the "Wow" factor.

Tigers sweep eliminates NU's Big 12 Tourney hopes (Omaha.com)
The Tigers (27-22, 10-13) solidified their position for the conference tournament. They scored five runs to unlock a 1-1 game in the seventh inning against Nebraska relievers Casey Hauptman, Jordan Roualdes and Sean Yost.
Roualdes walked Brett Nicholas with the bases loaded to give Mizzou the lead for good. Andreas Plackis followed with a sacrifice fly before Jonah Schmidt doubled with two outs to make it 4-1 and Conner Mach scored two more with a single.
“That was the key inning,” Anderson said.

Huskers drop finale to Missouri (Grand Island Independent)
With two outs and a runner on first, Cody Asche and Kale Kiser were hit by pitches by MU reliever Phil McCormick, loading the bases and putting the tying run in scoring position. Brad Buehler was summoned from the bullpen and hit Josh Scheffert to make it a one-run game, but Burleson, who had two hits and drove a career-high three runs on Sunday, could not complete the rally and struck out end the game. Buehler earned his first save of the season and dashed Nebraska’s hopes to make the Big 12 Tournament in two weeks.

Huskers fall short, swept by Missouri (HuskerExtra.com)
“Extremely disappointed on the weekend and today,” Anderson said. “Glad we fought back and put ourselves in a position to win the game, but we didn’t execute in getting the final run across in the ninth.”

With the sweep, Missouri extended its streak against NU to nine straight wins.
Outfielder shows power in Missouri baseball sweep of Nebraska (Columbia Missourian)
“You never want to aim for the fences,” Schmidt said. “You just want to square balls up. I went through a little period in there where I was getting my hands underneath the ball and not staying on top. I think making that adjustment has really helped me in the last couple of weeks.”

MU coach Tim Jamieson said he thinks Schmidt is becoming a more complete hitter. Rather than trying to hit the ball to left field during every at-bat, he is sending balls to all fields and just trying to make solid contact.

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